Recently, the National Joint passenger car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the Federation) in the new issue of passenger car retail volume forecast report pointed out that January 2024Narrow passenger carRetail sales are expected to be 2.2 million units, and new energy is expected to be 800 thousand units, with a penetration rate of about 36.4%.According to the analysis of the Federation, as of mid-January, most companies still officially continued the promotion policy at the end of last year, the market maintained high concessions, continued to drive consumers' willingness to buy, and was conducive to the early release of car purchase demand before the Spring Festival. "Overall, the car market in January this year has the conditions for a good start."
2024, the beginning of the price war
After the baptism of the price war in 2023, in 2024, a new round of price war smoke has been filled. According to incomplete statistics, as of now, more than 16 car companies have opened a new round of price reduction activities. Among them, the ideal car, which had rarely participated in the price war, has also joined this array.
At the same time, it is worth noting that this price reduction activity is not only concentrated in January 2024, but also some car companies have continued until the Spring Festival, in order to obtain more market share and sales.According to the terminal research of the Association, the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in early January was about 20.4%, although some manufacturers slightly recovered the preferential policies at the end of December, but there are still some manufacturers to introduce a new wave of preferential policies before the holiday, and the overall market incentives are still no signs of recovery.Among them, the retail target of the head manufacturers (accounting for about 80% of retail sales) at the beginning of the month decreased by about 5% compared with the previous month, and some manufacturers still have the momentum of impact on the first month of the New Year.In this context, the retail market of passenger vehicles in a narrow sense is estimated to be about 2.2 million units this month, up -6.5 percent month on month. Affected by the ultra-low base at the beginning of last year, the retail market grew by 70.2 percent year on year.Due to the cold weather in winter, consumers have a more obvious perception of battery life, which is not conducive to the potential customer savings of the new energy resources car market. The new round of price reduction of new energy resources manufacturers has been opened, and a new round of new energy mainstream market segments are ready to go. Based on this, the China Association of Automobile Dealers predicted that retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be around 800 thousand units this month, a sequential decline of -15.3 percent, and the penetration rate dropped to 36.4 percent.
The whole year again hit 30 million peak
The year 2023 got off to a rocky start, but even amid cries of "survival difficulties," China's auto production and sales topped the 30 million mark for the first time in history. The annual production and sales reached 30.161 million and 30.094 million vehicles respectively, up 11.6% and 12% year on year, which is another record after reaching 29 million vehicles in 2017. It is also the world's first level for 15 consecutive years.But in such a gratifying result, China's automotive industry advisory committee director Anqingheng said still need to keep a cool head, rational and objective view of the achievements, pay attention to the potential problems, and targeted efforts to solve the problem.“China's new energy resources vehicles are developing rapidly and on a large scale. But the whole industry is facing the problem of profitability.” 。 Anqingheng said, “At present, only Tesla, BYD, Ideal and AEON are profitable among the new energy resources vehicles, and most of the new energy vehicles are losing money. Otherwise, the prosperity of new energy resources vehicles cannot be sustained.”As mentioned earlier, under the high-frequency price war, automobile sales have risen month by month, but due to the continuous decline in terminal prices, the total retail sales of automotive consumer goods have narrowed. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2023, the total retail sales of automotive consumer goods increased by 4.0% year on year, while the prices of fuel cars and new energy resources cars decreased by 6.4% and 5.4% year on year, respectively.According to the current trend, the price war will further escalate in 2024. Gaishi Automotive Research Institute believes that at present, most of the mainstream joint-venture vehicle enterprises, there is still room for the sale of fuel vehicles, these products in 2024 will certainly be further squeezed by the new energy resources vehicle market, the terminal price will be further lowered. Secondly, for new energy resources vehicles, with the lower cost of batteries, there will be more room for price adjustment. At present, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped to 100 thousand yuan / ton, which is good news for the cost reduction of batteries. And the cost reduction of batteries is bound to continue to lower the pricing of new energy vehicles.In addition, the 2024 car enterprise plan compiled by Gasse Automobile shows that in the new year, most car enterprises have plans to push new cars, and the price reduction of new cars has become a trend, and market competition is expected to become more intense.Under this background, many institutions, including Gaishi Automotive Research Institute, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Passenger Car Federation, are optimistic that the size of China's auto market will once again exceed 30 million units in 2024, and it is expected to hit a peak of 32 million units.
Post time: Jan-29-2024