2024 car market, who is recognized as the strongest and most challenging opponent. The answer is obvious - BYD.Once upon a time, BYD was just a follower. With the growth of new energy resources vehicles in China, BYD seized the opportunity to ride the wave.Fuel car dominated era, BYD annual sales have not entered the club more than one million. In the new energy era, after a decisive ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, BYD doubled its annual sales from 700 thousand to 1.86 million vehicles in just one year. In 2023, the sales volume of BYD jumped to 3 million, and the net profit is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan.Not only that, from 2022 to 2023 for two consecutive years, BYD is more than Tesla retentively topped the global new energy resources vehicle sales. Obviously, the BYD new energy resources production and marketing scale enters the new stage, in a short period nobody can match."How to beat BYD?" It should be something every competitor should think about.So, in 2024, BYD high-speed growth trend is sustainable? Is the market still stable? Which opponents will attack?
Where will BYD's growth come from in 2024?
If a car company wants to maintain steady growth in sales, it must have Ivy products to stabilize the base plate, and it must continue to push new and create new increments. Gaishi Automotive Institute analysts believe that BYD sales this year, the core of incremental sales mainly fromEquation leopardBrand, Dynasty and Ocean two series of new models and the rapid growth of export markets.
As we all know, dynasty and ocean two series, is the absolute pillar of BYD sales. In 2023, the Ocean Series launched a strong attack, launching a variety of new cars such as Dolphin and Seagull, which lowered the price of BYD's pure electric car to below 80,000 yuan and reconstructed the 100 thousand yuan market, further squeezing the share of joint venture fuel vehicles at the same price together with SAIC, GM, Wuling and other brands.Look at the dynasty series, the product Huanxin upgrade to the champion version, in fact, is a disguised form of opening the price reduction model (based on the cost scale advantage, making the product sell cheaper). For example, early last year, the Qing PLUS DMi champion version, the price dropped to 100,000 yuan level. This is BYD to 1 00000 - 2 00000 yuan Volkswagen market signal to declare war.
Judging from the sales results, the strategy of dynasty and ocean series is undoubtedly successful. In 2023, the combined sales of the two series reached 2,877,400 units, an increase of 55.3% year-on-year.
Among them, Seagulls, Qing PLUS, Yuan and other hot selling models sold more than 30 thousand units or even higher sales, and a variety of models such as Han, Han, Don, Song and other stable in more than 10,000 units. Obviously, compared to other car companies, BYD's more than 10 models of "explosive" stable base plate. In terms of increase, the division division of Geist Automobile Research Institute said that new models such as Song L and Sea Lion will become the main force in the sales growth of the two series this year.
The brand new Equation Leopard, released in August last year, is also expected to usher in a rapid increase in volume this year. Equation Leopard is the fourth brand launched by BYD, positioning personalized areas of expertise. In November of the same year, the first model Leopard 5 was listed, priced at 289,800 to 352,800 yuan, and has been delivered.
With reasonable prices, strong brand endorsement, and superimposed on the growth of user demand for off-road vehicles, the sales volume of Equation Leopard 5 exceeded 5,000 units in the first full month, winning the first battle, and it is predicted that this year's sales are expected to further.In addition, the export market will also be another force in BYD's sales growth. The year 2023 is the year of BYD's globalization. BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu once said, "The focus of 2023 is globalization, BYD has been through exports and local production two paths to promote the globalization strategy."Only two years, BYD passenger car business has entered Japan, Germany, Australia, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, nearly 60 countries and regions.With a strong product strength and high visibility (since 2022 sales than FAW-Volkswagen, BYD's overseas sales are growing rapidly, reaching 240,000 units in 2023, up 3.3 times year on year, and BYD is among the forefront of new energy resources vehicle sales in many countries and regions.
This year, BYD continues to accelerate the pace of opening up overseas markets. BYD plant in Thailand will soon be in operation and production, located in Europe in Hungary plant, South America, Brazil plant will also start construction. This shows that BYD is gradually by trade exports to localized production-oriented. With the completion of overseas factories and production, BYD will further reduce costs, enhance the competitiveness of products in the local market.BYD's overseas sales are expected to exceed 500 thousand vehicles this year, doubling from last year, analysts at Gaia Automotive Research Institute forecast.
Will growth slow this year?
Based on the overall sales growth of new energy and BYD's own development scale judgment, BYD last year to complete the 3 million sales target, is expected in the industry. BYD has yet to announce a sales target for 2024. However, based on BYD's current sales base and growth rate, a number of agencies forecast its sales and performance in 2024.Comprehensive multi-party news, the industry generally believe that BYD sales in 2024 will continue to maintain growth, but the size of the increment is different.Shengang Securities is optimistic, forecasting that with the penetration of new energy resources vehicles increasing, production capacity rapidly releasing, and Dolphin DM-i, Song L, Teng Shi N7 / N8,Looking up to U8/ U9, Leopard 5 and other new cars have been launched on the market, BYD continues in the cycle of promoting new products, 2024 sales are expected to exceed 4 million units, an increase of more than 30% over the same period last year.
The Gaishi Automotive Research Institute is more cautious, is expected in 2024 sales of 3.4 million to 3.5 million or so, an increase of about 15%, "this is including export sales." Analysts pointed out that this is based on BYD's sales performance in recent months, in fact, "from the second half of last year, BYD domestic growth has been significantly sluggish."As you can see, BYD's 2023 sales target of 3 million vehicles was not achieved until the last month, and ended up with 20,000 more vehicles.In order to reach the sales target set in 2023, BYD frequently adjusted prices in the second half of the year. However, from the terminal sales situation, there is not much substantial improvement. Terminal sales data shows that from June to November, BYD terminal insurance volume is relatively stable, stable at about 230 thousand vehicles. "This reflects that the price reduction promotion only stabilized sales, but did not bring significant growth," the analyst said.
BYD, meanwhile, faces upward pressure. Under the impact of competitors such as the questioning world, the Biadihan series market performance appears to be weak. In 2023, the Han Series totaled 228 thousand vehicles, down from 270 thousand in the previous year. The market reaction of N7 and N8 and other products listed by Teng Potential is also less than expected, and the monthly average sales volume hovers around 1,000 vehicles, still supported by D9.For the two series of Ocean and Dynasty, analysts at Gaius Automotive Research Institute believe that BYD's existing core explosive models such as Qin, Song, Han, yuan, seagull, etc., this year's performance in the domestic market, is expected to maintain the current monthly sales level or a slight decline, can no longer provide too much incremental for the brand.As for looking at the brand, given its million-level price positioning, it is not for the purpose of taking volume. The data shows that in December last year, 1500 U8 was delivered in the first month. Compared to sales contribution, looking up to the help of BYD is more reflected in the brand up and profit margin promotion level.Based on the huge sales base of 3 million vehicles last year, BYD sales growth this year is difficult to reproduce speed growth. Agency analysts predict that BYD's net profit in 2024 may be more than 40 billion yuan, an increase of more than 100 billion over last year, an increase of about 30%, compared with the previous two years has shrunk significantly.
Besieged by force?
Compared to the current domestic new energy resources vehicle sales and market share of the major domestic car companies, BYD is still the leader, its leading position will be difficult to shake in the short term.According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, BYD alone accounts for 35 percent of the retail sales of new energy resources passenger vehicles, followed by Tesla Motors China, which accounts for only 8 percent, and GAC AEON, Geely Automobile and SAIC-GM-Wuling, which account for only about 6 percent."At present, there is no car companies in a short period of time and BYD rival," some analysts have pointed out. But he believes that BYD in various market segments and different price range is also a great competitive pressure.
For example, 100,000 to 150,000 yuan Volkswagen will be the main focus of new energy resources in 2024. The China 100 Electric Vehicle Council predicts that this price range will be a key growth area for new energy resources vehicles in the next two years, which is expected to contribute one third of the increase. This also means that the competition in this market will become more fierce.In fact, in 2023, many car companies began to force the Volkswagen market, new brands or products constantly gush. New entrants include Chery Fengyun series,Geely GalaxySeries, Changan Kaiyuan series and other strong competitors. At the same time, old brands such as Ian and Deep Blue are also accelerating the launch of new vehicles to consolidate or expand their market share in this market segment.The above-mentioned car companies not only push fast, but also cover a variety of technical routes such as plug-in hybrid, extended range, and pure electricity. Under the strong background of the Group, many new brands or new models have strong market competitiveness. For example, Geely Galaxy series released half a year, the monthly sales is stable at more than ten thousand. These brands are bound to grab BYD's share of the relevant market segments, according to analysts at Gaishi Automotive Research Institute.In the high-end market of more than 250 thousand yuan, BYD is not as smooth as imagined. The decline in sales of the Han series and the poor performance of the N7 / N8 can be seen. In contrast, the new M7 orders exceeded 120 thousand units and the new M9 orders broke 30,000 units. The total monthly sales of the ideal L series broke through 40000 units.Tengshi D9's leading position in high-end MPV new energy resources market may be difficult to maintain for a long time. With the Buick GL8 Plug version is about to be listed and delivered, and the strength of Wei Brand Mountain, Small Pengs X9 models have entered the competition, its market position or will be threatened.The Leopard is also under competitive pressure. At present, the independent brand is hot off-road vehicle market. IRui Consulting said that with changes in consumer demand, the SUV market, especially "light cross-country SUV to the main trend." According to Gaeshi Automobile's partial statistics, more than 10 cross-country SUV products will enter the market in 2023.What's more, there are tank brands that have deeply cultivated this market segment. According to observers engaged in off-road modification work, the tank brand is very popular with off-road vehicle users, "many users sell imported off-road vehicles, turned around and bought a tank 300." In 2023, the tank brand sold 163 thousand vehicles. The follow-up performance of Leopard as a newcomer has yet to be verified by the market.
The face of the enemy around, BYD in the capital market position is also affected. Citigroup analysts recently lowered their price target for BYD to HK $463 per share from HK $602 per share, Bloomberg reported. They believe BYD's sales growth and profit margins could come under pressure as competition in China intensifies. Citigroup also lowered its sales forecast for BYD this year to 3. 68 million vehicles from 3.95 million.BYD's share price has fallen 15 per cent since mid-November 2023, according to the agency. At present, the market value of BYD at around 540 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year evaporated 200 billion yuan.Perhaps it is the overheated domestic market that BYD has accelerated its expansion overseas in recent years. With the cost advantage and strong product strength, as well as the promotion of global visibility, BYD is at sea. Can be bold guess, if BYD and even Chinese car prices can seize the sea of new energy resources opportunities, the birth of one or more "Volkswagen or Toyota" such a global vehicle manufacturer giant, it is not impossible.
Post time: Jan-29-2024